1.0 Introduction
It is safe to say that the forthcoming 2023 general elections in Nigeria will go down in history as one of the most important elections in not just Nigeria’s history but its democratization process that has been uninterrupted since 1999. The political space of Nigeria has a multi-party outlook but has always been a contestation between two parties; and most recently, it has been between the All-Progressive Congress (APC) with a renowned political strategist and former Governor of Lagos State [Bola Ahmed Tinubu] and the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) with the former Vice President and long-term political gladiator [Atiku Abubakar].
However, the 2023 general elections present a different outlook and possibilities, particularly with the emergence of the much talked about “third force” and possibly “fourth force.” The emergence of Mr. Peter Obi as the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) changed the dimension and expectations around the 2023 elections, with the youths seemingly championing a rebirth of Nigeria through the candidacy of Mr. Peter Obi. Recognizing Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, an advocate of the well-known Kwankwasia movement, as the party’s flag bearer, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) has made strides. This leaves us with four (4) strong contenders and with a higher stake heading into the elections in 2023, but yet with the most unpredictable dilemma, which experts see as a good development necessary to deepen Nigeria’s democracy
SmartAfrique R&D Consult Ltd and GCIS Research Unit decided to play a significant role in monitoring the activities leading to the elections and rating the choice of the candidates through a three-phased period: before, during, and after the campaigns. This is in a bid to follow the trends and effect of particular periods of the electioneering process on the choice of candidates. The methodology adopted is a simple survey parameter aimed at sampling the opinion of respondents on their choice of candidates who they think should be Nigeria’s President come May 2023.
2.0 Methodology
The poll was carried out in Nigeria with special focus on the majority voting states, or what Americans refer to as swing states, which include Lagos, Kano, Rivers, Kaduna, Katsina, Delta, Oyo, and Benue state. To clarify the primary data used for the study, a well-structured questionnaire created on Google Form was sent via social media. The data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistics.
3.0 Findings of the Survey
3.1 Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Respondents
The result for the socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents showed that about 44% of the respondents were within the age bracket of 18 and 35 years, 38% were between 36-45 years, while 10% of the respondents were between 46 and 55 years, and less than 8% of the respondents were above 56 years. Youths, as defined by many scholars in Nigeria, are people between the ages of 17 and 35 years. So, this implies that the majority of the respondents were young people, and it shows that there is a high level of interest among Nigerian youths concerning the conduct and outcome of the forthcoming general elections. Also, majority (78%) were males and 22% were females.
3.2 Opinion of Respondents on the Most competent Among the Four Major Candidates
The opinions of respondents were sampled on the most competent among the four major candidates. The result in Figure 1 revealed that 70% of the respondents believe that Peter Obi is the most competent among the four major candidates. About 18% of the respondents stated that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the most competent among the four major candidates. Meanwhile, only about 10% of the respondents were of the opinion that Rabiu Kwankwaso is the most competent among the four major candidates and 2% of the respondent believe that Atiku Abubakar is the most competent among the four major candidates. This result implies that a majority of the population believed Peter Obi is most likely to be the most capable candidate who would lead Nigeria going forward.
3.3 Opinion of Respondents on the Preferred candidate to Win 2023 the Presidential Elections in Lagos State
Results on Figure 2 revealed that Majority (56%) of the respondents to the survey reported that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the preferred candidate to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Lagos State. 42% of them prefer Peter Obi to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Lagos State, while 2% of the respondents stated that Atiku Abubakar preferred candidate to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Lagos State.
3.4 Opinion of Respondents on the Preferred candidate to Win 2023 Presidential Elections in Kano State
Results on Figure 3 revealed that Majority (38%) of the respondents to the survey reported that Rabiu Kwankwaso is the preferred candidate to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Kano State and 32% of them prefer Bola Ahmad Tinubu.18% % of the respondents stated that Atiku Abubakar is the preferred candidate to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Kano State, while 12% of the respondents stated that Peter Obi is the preferred candidate to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Kano State.
3.5 Opinion of Respondents on the Preferred candidate to Win 2023 Presidential Elections in Rivers State
Results on Figure 4 revealed that Majority (84%) of the respondents to the survey reported that Peter Obi is the preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Rivers State. 8% of them prefer Bola Ahmed Tinubu to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Rivers State, and 8% of the respondents stated that Atiku Abubakar preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Rivers State.
3.6 Opinion of Respondents on the Preferred candidate to Win 2023 Presidential Elections in Kaduna State
Results on Figure 5 revealed that Majority (46%) of the respondents to the survey reported that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Kaduna State. 24% of them prefer Atiku Abubakar to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Kaduna State, while 20% of the respondents stated that Peter Obi is the preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Kaduna State, and 10% of the respondents reported that Rabiu Kwankwaso is the preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Kaduna State.
3.7 Opinion of Respondents on the Preferred candidate to Win 2023 Presidential Elections in Katsina State
Results on Figure 6 revealed that Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu were at par as they both had 40% each of the respondents who reported that they were the preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Katsina State. Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso were also at par as they both had 10% each of the respondents who reported that they were the preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Katsina State
3.8 Opinion of Respondents on the Preferred candidate to Win 2023 Presidential Elections in Delta State
Results on Figure 7 revealed that Majority (66%) of the respondents to the survey reported that Peter Obi is the preferred Presidential candidate to win 2023 Elections in Delta State. 28% of them prefer Atiku Abubakar to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Delta State, 4% of the respondents preferred Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while 2% of the respondents stated that Rabiu Kwankwaso is the preferred candidate to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Delta State.
3.9 Opinion of Respondents on the Preferred candidate to Win 2023 Presidential Elections in Oyo State
Results on Figure 8 revealed that Majority (58%) of the respondents to the survey reported that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Oyo State. 24% of them prefer Peter Obi to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Oyo State, 16% of the respondents preferred Atiku Abubakar, while 2% of the respondents stated that Rabiu Kwankwaso is the preferred candidate to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Oyo State.
3.10 Opinion of Respondents on the Preferred candidate to Win 2023 Presidential Elections in Benue State
Results on Figure 9 revealed that Majority (76%) of the respondents to the survey reported that Peter Obi is the preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Benue State. 12% of them prefer Atiku Abubakar to win the 2023 Presidential Elections in Benue State, 8% preferred Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while 4% of the respondents stated that Rabiu Kwankwaso preferred candidate to win 2023 Presidential Elections in Benue State.
4.0 Conclusion
According to the survey, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC candidate, was the front-runner among the major candidates in the upcoming general elections in Nigeria in 2023. He had the highest head count in four states, including Lagos, Kaduna, Katsina, and Oyo. Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party, also had the highest head counts in the three states of Rivers, Delta, and Benue . This poll’s results indicate a close race, which could lead to a runoff.